Seasonal Forecast for Sri Lanka

June-July-August rainfall forecast (Experimental)

based on Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

June-July-August (JJA) – 2008 (Experimental)

District Rainfall Forecast (mm/day)

District

Forecast

Average

Probability of Occurrence

All-Sri Lanka

2.28 (BN*)

2.60

51 %

Colombo

5.21 (BN*)

6.03

57 %

Kalutara

7.49 (BN*)

8.58

55 %

Galle

6.67 (BN *)

7.59

53 %

Matara

5.04 (BN*)

5.92

55 %

Gampaha

4.05 (BN*)

4.63

53 %

Kegalle

7.89 (BN*)

8.81

55 %

BN* = Below Normal

Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), developed by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society of University of Columbia, USA is made use of for making seasonal weather forecasts for Sri Lanka.  Field variable of Seoul National University (SNU) General Circulation Model (GCM) Tier-1 is used as predictors.

Seasonal Forecast for Sri Lanka

June-July-August rainfall forecast (Experimental)

based on Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

Observed, hindcast and forecast rainfall (mm/day) for June-July August (JJA) are graphically presented for selected districts in Sri Lanka.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.